Prediction Markets Alpha

What it is

Prediction Markets Alpha is a Python trading bot for Polymarket, designed around a $50 starting stake; its eight commits date from 14 to 20 February 2026. Each cycle it scans markets, updates prices, runs risk checks, evaluates its strategies one after another and logs a portfolio snapshot; the default cycle is 10 seconds. One configuration flag switches between a paper-trading simulator and a live executor that sends Fill-or-Kill orders; live mode will not start without a typed confirmation. It is a small-capital engineering prototype, not a fund or a trading operation.

Strategy modules

The bot contains five strategy modules, each capped at its own share of the portfolio. Claude is queried at most three times per cycle, and an estimate is used only when the model's self-reported confidence is at least 0.60; the repository contains no measurement of how well calibrated those estimates are. The only trade journal in the repository comes from the 5-minute crypto module; none exists for the other four.

• Probability edge: Claude Sonnet 4.5 estimates an outcome's probability, which is then compared with the market price
• Sum-to-one arbitrage: buys YES and NO when together they cost under $0.98
• High-probability positions: contracts priced $0.95–0.99, exited below $0.90
• 15-minute crypto up/down markets: mainly price change since window open, plus VWAP, RSI, MACD, Heikin-Ashi
• 5-minute crypto up/down markets, with phase-dependent entry gates and a volatility filter

Risk controls

Every order that opens a position must pass nine checks: trading halt, balance, position size, open-position limit, cash reserve, time to resolution, market volume, duplicate position and a per-market cooldown. The time and volume checks are skipped for the two crypto modules. The probability and crypto modules size positions with fractional Kelly; arbitrage and high-probability positions use fixed capital allocations. A separate monitor applies stop-loss, partial take-profit, an exposure limit and a portfolio-level halt.

Status

The private repository’s last commit is dated 20 February 2026, and work has been paused since. It preserves one overnight paper-trading run of about 13 hours with a single module enabled, and no live trade journal. One run of that length cannot establish whether an edge exists, so no results are shown. What remains is infrastructure: market discovery, the validation pipeline, paper and live executors, and crash recovery.